The Mosaic Global Fund made 0.63% return for the month of December.
The most eye catching development of December is the continued decline in the oil price. The decline in December was 20%, with a total fall of over 40% for the last quarter of 2014. In the United States the Federal Reserve is holding back with their planned interest rate rises. This came as somewhat of a surprise with the data showing a stronger than expected employment market for the month. In Europe the stock market indices had a relatively weak month most likely driven by negative sentiment across the continent in regards to growth, Greek elections and a lower euro.
Russia dramatically increased its interest rates with 6.5% to hit 17%, with the intent to stop the weakening of the Rubel, but the effect did not last. The Rubel has depreciated over 35% against the USD during the last quarter. In Japan, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was re-elected. Despite Japan’s Abenomics, Japan’s version of quantitative easing, the country has problems to work itself out of its deflationary cycle and even slipped into recession again. Anticipating more Abenomic’s the yen continued to sell off with Japanese bonds continuing to move up strongly.
Despite the volatility of global markets during the month the Mosaic Global Fund keeps performing strongly. The reason for this is that our Momentum indicators are telling us that the bond markets are, and have been for a while much stronger than stocks, which has led us to be overweight bonds. This has paid off over the last few months showing positive performance since September.
Looking ahead we currently see the same development for January with bond markets still being stronger than stocks. What will be interesting to follow over the coming months is the relative performance between the US and Europe, since European stocks have lagged their US counter parties for quite some time, and on a fundamental basis seems very cheap compared. Also Emerging Markets have been pushed down strongly and could represent opportunity over the coming months. We will, as always, monitor and let our Trend and Momentum Filter decide when it is time for us to increase or decrease allocations.
We look forward to speaking with you in the near term. Please reach out to us on this email firstname.lastname@example.org, or give us a call on +352 202 033 27, to find out more. We look forward to speaking with you soon.
To Your Investment Success!
Per-Olov Jansson & the Cardea Investment Team