The Mosaic Global Fund had a -0.79% return for the month of November.
The month saw continued volatility in global markets, particularly mid-month, after Mr. Draghi at the ECB managed to disappoint the market in a big way. The expectations where set on a continued, or hopefully increased quantitative easing program, when the message from Mr. Draghi was not clear, stock markets globally sold off strongly, but recovered most of their losses by the end of the month. The uncertainty also created large movements in other markets such as currencies and interest rates.
The commodity markets continued to be weak with gold making new lows for the downtrend around $1050 now being down over 45% since it peak at 1900 back in 2011. As well oil that we have been writing about in previous commentaries stayed weak and is continuing to test the $40 level, a break of this level is very likely to create more selling with lower prices as a result. The price of oil is now down over 65% in 18 months. Both gold and oil are very good examples of the fact that when a trend has started it normally travels much further than what we might expect both up and down.
Back in the beginning of the year we mentioned emerging markets as a potential allocation candidate for us due to a strengthening during particularly March. Unfortunately this temporary strength did not lead to anything more permanent and the now lengthy down trend instead resumed. Emerging markets as an aggregate, ETF EEM, is now down over 35% since 2011, with some individual markets such as Russia being down around 45% in the last 18 months and over 60% since its last peak back in 2011.
The Mosaic Global Fund increased its allocation towards the US stock market in November, the Fund also made allocations into emerging market debts which has shown some resilience in the latest turbulence. The bond market positions were reduced but still represent just under half of the portfolio. The stock market positions showed marginal gains but could not offset losses in the bond holdings which lead to a negative performance for the Fund.
Please reach out to us on this email firstname.lastname@example.org, or give us a call on +352 202 033 27, to find out more about the Mosaic Global Fund and how the Fund is managed with our Trend and Momentum Filters. We look forward to speaking with you soon.
To Your Investment Success!
Per-Olov Jansson & the Cardea Investment Team