The Mosaic Global Fund had a -1.23% return for the month of December.
The focus in December was on the long expected interest rate rise in the US. The anticipation and the communication from the federal reserve had done everything to remove any elements of surprise. The slight rise helped the stock markets to close the year on a positive note despite being quite volatile in expectation of the rate decision. Bond market showed a corresponding weakness. The ECB also committed to a continued easing and stimulus but were not as aggressive as the market had expected which resulted in large moves in both the Euro as well as European interest rate futures.
Outside of developed stock and bond markets, we have been following a continued strong slide in commodities, which are literally in free fall. The main driver for the decline is of course the energy complex, but also commodities like Coffee, Copper and Oats have seen major losses over the last 12 months. Also emerging markets are closing out the year in very negative territory. As we have mentioned in previous commentaries we are following, particularly emerging markets, with interest since we have now seen losses continuously since back in 2011. With developed markets, especially US, showing relatively expensive valuations a rise in interest in emerging markets would be logical. Clearly, staying true to our investment philosophy we will need to see supporting price action with the following positive trend confirmations before initiating any allocations.
Going into 2016 the Mosaic Global Fund will continue to hold an over allocation towards stocks, especially US-stocks, due to continued relative and overall strength. While we are seeing concerning signs in the market place the stock market has yet to respond to our concerns. The Fund had a negative month losing money in bonds and on certain stock market positions with positive returns in other stock market holdings.
Please reach out to us on this email firstname.lastname@example.org, or give us a call on +352 202 033 27, to find out more about the Mosaic Global Fund and how the Fund is managed with our Trend and Momentum Filters. We look forward to speaking with you soon.
To Your Investment Success!
Per-Olov Jansson & the Cardea Investment Team